Is Kalonzo Succeeding Where Raila Failed
It’s said that the liver chokes because it is very light, people underestimate it, swallow it carelessly, and only realise too late that its softness is exactly what traps them. In this moment of Kenya’s shifting political winds, Kalonzo Musyoka might be that liver. His political softness, long dismissed as irrelevance, may now be the very strength that catches William Ruto off guard, a dynamic political analysts have observed globally.
Ruto, confident in his own weight and dismissive of Kalonzo’s, may be assuming too much, and the signs already suggest he is beginning to choke. For years, Kalonzo was treated as a political bystander, the man who always stood beside power but never reached for it. Raila Odinga towered over him, a giant of struggle, defiance, and history.
Ruto on the other hand triumphed through sheer political aggression. But now Kenya is entering a psychological phase where the country seems tired of heavy personalities. And in that exhaustion, Kalonzo’s supposed lightness has become an advantage, not an accident, but a vacuum that voters are subconsciously seeking to fill.
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Even more striking is where Kalonzo’s soft landing is happening, Mt. Kenya, a region that rejected Raila Odinga for decades, a region that made William Ruto president in 2022, and a region now quietly turning its back on him. The anger that erupted after Ruto allowed the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua was not just political, it was emotional. Mt. Kenya voters felt betrayed, humiliated, and dispensable according to several observers.
Eight cabinet slots became meaningless when their son was stripped of national dignity. This is the wound Kalonzo has walked into, not with force, but with presence. He does not carry Raila’s baggage, Raila’s history, Raila’s battles, or Raila’s polarising weight.
He is light enough for the region to consider, and familiar enough to be trusted. Raila was too big to swallow, Kalonzo is light enough not to trigger old fears. That difference, small as it appears, is politically explosive.
And this is where Ruto’s struggle becomes psychological. In 2022, he defeated giants, Raila Odinga backed by a sitting government, Uhuru Kenyatta’s political machinery, and decades of entrenched oligarchies. Because he triumphed over such overwhelming forces, he built a myth about himself, the man who cannot be stopped.
That myth worked against Raila, a heavyweight whose every move triggered fear or resistance in certain regions. But now the opponent is Kalonzo, the “light liver.” And psychologically, this is where Ruto’s instincts may betray him.
People often fight hardest against giants, but they overlook the underdog. Ruto built his brand as the man who overcame big obstacles, he is now unsure how to handle a man who doesn’t attack loudly, doesn’t polarise, doesn’t spark tribal memories, and doesn’t trigger defensive instincts.
Meanwhile, the internal ODM dynamics after Raila’s death are reshaping the terrain even faster. Winnie Odinga’s emotional reaffirmation that ODM was “born from protest and raised in resistance” was more than nostalgia, it was a warning to Ruto. It signaled that Raila’s political soul hasn’t died with him.
Mama Ida Odinga’s remarks that Kalonzo was “more of a friend to Raila” than many realise further softened ground for Kalonzo’s entry into the Raila succession space. And James Orengo’s stinging declaration that “ODM doesn’t need Ruto, it is Ruto that needs ODM because he has failed” laid bare the current hostility consuming the party. These dynamics would not matter if Ruto had kept Mt. Kenya.
But losing the mountain shifts everything. In 2022, that region delivered the votes that made the difference between victory and defeat. Without it, Ruto leans heavily on Raila’s old base, a base now drifting toward Kalonzo because he appears to be the natural heir, not by history, but by acceptance.
The paradox is stark, Raila was too heavy to win, and Kalonzo may be too light to stop. The very traits that caused Kalonzo to be underestimated for years are now turning into weapons. Voters bruised by betrayal seek gentleness.
Regions once afraid of Raila’s storm prefer a quieter sky. And a political nation exhausted by confrontation seems ready for a softer candidate. Whether Kalonzo ultimately succeeds or not is still uncertain.
Politics shifts fast, and Ruto is not a man who accepts defeat passively. He will fight, reorganise, manipulate structures, and attempt to rewrite the narrative as he always does. But for the first time, he is contending with a threat whose danger lies not in power, but in subtlety.
And that is exactly why it is dangerous. Because the liver is light. And light things choke faster than heavy ones.
“The paradox is stark, Raila was too heavy to win, and Kalonzo may be too light to stop.”
This article was prepared by the Ramsey Focus Analysis Desk, based on verified reports, independent analysis, and insights to ensure balanced coverage.
